CAPABILITIES
“My guess is that we will have AI that is smarter than any one human, probably around the end of 2025.”
- Said
- Apr 2024
- Closed
- Dec 2025
- Source
- interview →
- Verdict
- false
What would settle this
There is no accepted scale on which a model and a person can be compared, so this settles on demonstration rather than measurement: a system publicly shown to outperform the ablest humans across a broad range of cognitive tasks, accepted as such by researchers outside the company that built it. No such system was demonstrated by the deadline.
Written when the claim went on the record, on 7 August 2026, before the outcome was known. How the record works →
63% of readers said no. Readers called it.
617 on record
No system at the end of 2025 was accepted as smarter than the ablest humans across the board. Gary Marcus publicly offered a million-dollar bet against this claim at the time and it was never taken up.
Voting closed when the deadline passed. What readers thought is kept as it stood. Think this verdict is wrong? Tell us — with evidence, it gets reversed and the change is logged.
About Elon Musk
Chief executive of Tesla and SpaceX, founder of xAI and owner of X. Co-founded OpenAI in 2015 and later left. Has repeatedly given near-term dates for AI surpassing human intelligence, and has revised them.
Also on record
On the record