Experts on the record
12 peopleBoosters, hedgers, sceptics and safety researchers, held to the same rule. Only settled claims count towards anyone's record.
Chief executive and co-founder of Anthropic, previously vice president of research at OpenAI. Has written that powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026 while noting the timeline …
Chief executive of Tesla and SpaceX, founder of xAI and owner of X. Co-founded OpenAI in 2015 and later left. Has repeatedly given near-term dates for AI surpassing human intellig…
Computer science professor and AI safety researcher who has published extensively on the controllability of advanced systems. Argues superintelligence cannot be reliably controlle…
Chief executive and co-founder of DeepMind, shared the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for protein structure prediction. Has generally placed human-level AI roughly a decade out, an…
Founder and chief executive of Meta, which develops the open-weight Llama models and in 2025 formed a Superintelligence Lab. Has given repeated near-term dates for AI replacing so…
Inventor and futurist who has predicted since the 1990s that machines would match human intelligence around 2029, with a broader technological singularity following in the 2040s. …
Chief executive and co-founder of OpenAI, previously president of Y Combinator. Has argued publicly that systems meeting most definitions of AGI are close, and that capability gai…
Cognitive scientist and emeritus professor, a long-standing critic of the scaling hypothesis. Argues that deep learning alone will not produce reliable general intelligence and th…
Turing Award winner and 2024 Nobel laureate in Physics, often called a founder of deep learning. Left Google in 2023 in order to speak freely about the risks of the technology, an…
Chief executive and co-founder of NVIDIA, which supplies most of the hardware used to train frontier models. Has predicted AI will pass human-level benchmarks within a few years a…
Turing Award winner and founding director of Facebook AI Research, who spent twelve years at Meta, seven of them as chief AI scientist. Left in November 2025 and founded Advanced …
Turing Award winner and one of the most cited researchers in machine learning. Has chaired international scientific assessment of AI risk and argues for precautionary governance a…