COMPUTE
“The total amount of sentient compute of AI will probably exceed all humans within five years.”
EM
- Said
- Apr 2024
- Deadline
- within five years
- Source
- interview →
- Verdict
- not yet
What would settle this
Requires a published, credible estimate of aggregate AI compute exceeding an equivalent estimate for all human brains, using a stated method. Settles as unclear if no comparable figures exist by the deadline.
Written when the claim went on the record, on 7 August 2026, before the outcome was known. How the record works →
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About Elon Musk
Chief executive of Tesla and SpaceX, founder of xAI and owner of X. Co-founded OpenAI in 2015 and later left. Has repeatedly given near-term dates for AI surpassing human intelligence, and has revised them.
Also on record
On the record