AGI
“AGI will arrive before the end of 2030.”
- Said
- date not recorded
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Source
- not linked
- Verdict
- not yet
What would settle this
Broad acceptance among researchers outside the labs that a system matches human capability across essentially all cognitive tasks, before 31 December 2030. A lab declaring AGI about its own model does not settle it.
Written when the claim went on the record, on 7 August 2026, before the outcome was known. How the record works →
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What others said about this
Sam Altman
OpenAI · Jan 2025
“We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.”Altman says yes.
Elon Musk
xAI · Apr 2024
“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it is probably next year.”Musk says yes — and has moved the date twice.
Demis Hassabis
Google DeepMind · Mar 2025
“AGI will start to emerge in the next five or ten years.”Hassabis says probably not — he puts it just after 2030.
Roman Yampolskiy
University of Louisville · 2025
“We would have artificial general intelligence by 2027.”Yampolskiy says yes — 2027, earlier than the labs themselves.
On the record